Boon Keat ❂ CHIN
156 units.
That was the number.
Singapore developers sold just 156 private residential units in June, a figure that immediately triggered a familiar reaction across the property market.
“Demand is collapsing.”
“The market is freezing.”
“Prices must come down next.”
“Better wait.”
At first glance, that conclusion sounds logical.
If sales are at a two-year low, surely buyers have disappeared.
Surely developers will eventually have to cut prices.
Surely sitting on the sidelines is the smart financial decision.
Except that the headline may be telling you what happened without telling you why it happened.
And in property, that distinction can cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The most important number behind June’s sales figure was not 156.
It was zero.
Zero new private residential units were launched by developers that month. According to the source material, June was the first month since this particular URA data series began in 2007 in which developers launched zero new private homes.
That changes the entire interpretation.
You cannot conclude that buyers rejected new launches when there were no new launches to buy.
It is like walking into a shopping mall where the major stores are closed and then declaring that consumer demand has collapsed because sales are low.
The sales number is real.
But the conclusion many people draw from it may be completely wrong.
And this matters because many Singapore property buyers are currently facing what I believe is one of the most dangerous psychological traps in real estate.
The subconscious delay strategy.
The belief that doing nothing is automatically safer than making a decision.
The belief that if you wait long enough, the market will eventually give you a better deal.
Sometimes, waiting is absolutely the right decision.
But waiting without understanding the structural forces driving prices is not a strategy.
It is speculation.
And today, there is a fundamental question every buyer needs to ask.
Are you really waiting for a better opportunity? Or are you quietly allowing the market to increase your future entry price while you stand still?
Let’s break down the numbers, the interest-rate environment, developer behaviour and, most importantly, the mathematics behind why future properties may structurally cost more.
The 156-Unit Headline Does Not Tell the Whole Story
Let’s start with the headline.
Developer sales in June fell to just 156 units.
That sounds alarming.
But property data must always be analysed in context.
According to the source material, developers launched zero new private residential units during that month. The transactions that did occur largely represented the absorption of remaining inventory from earlier launches.
So the question should not be:
“Why did buyers only purchase 156 units?”
The more important question is:
“What were buyers actually being offered to buy?”
This distinction matters because Singapore’s new-launch market is highly dependent on the release pipeline.
When developers launch major projects, buyers have something new to compare.
New locations.
New layouts.
New facilities.
New MRT connectivity.
New transformation stories.
When no projects launch, transaction activity naturally drops.
That does not automatically mean buyer demand has disappeared.
And if we zoom out from one month and examine the broader market, the picture becomes very different.
The Bigger Picture. Demand Did Not Disappear
Between January and May 2026, the source material states that the market absorbed more than 3,900 new homes.
March and April alone accounted for almost 2,800 units.
For the first half of 2026, developers sold approximately 4,164 units, nearly double the comparable period in 2024 according to the analysis.
Think about that for a moment.
A market does not absorb thousands of multi-million-dollar properties if buyers have completely run out of money.
A market does not nearly double sales volumes because demand has vanished.
What happened instead appears much simpler.
The market absorbed a substantial amount of supply.
Then June arrived.
The new-launch pipeline paused.
And transaction volume fell.
But many observers saw the fall in one month’s sales and immediately assumed the entire market was collapsing.
This is one of the biggest problems with headline-driven property investing.
People confuse a temporary lack of supply with a permanent lack of demand.
The difference is enormous.
Property Buyers Are Not Buying With Cash. They Are Buying With the Cost of Capital
To understand what is driving demand, we need to understand something far more important than a single month’s sales volume.
The cost of money.
Interest rates fundamentally change the affordability of Singapore property.
A buyer may technically qualify for the same property at two different interest rates.
But the monthly financial reality can be completely different.
The source material illustrates this using a $2 million property loan.
When interest rates rose from the extremely low environment of around 0.12% to a peak near 3.74%, the increase in borrowing costs could add approximately $3,000 per month in interest-related expense, with monthly repayments moving from around $5,000 to potentially $8,000 or $9,000 depending on the financing structure.
That changes everything.
At low interest rates, a family may look at a private property and think:
“We can afford this.”
At much higher rates, exactly the same property may suddenly become financially uncomfortable.
The property did not change.
The buyer did not necessarily change.
The cost of capital changed.
And when the cost of capital becomes expensive, transaction volumes naturally fall.
The source material notes that during the higher-rate environment, sales volumes compressed significantly, with one period falling to around 654 units per quarter.
But the environment has changed again.
The analysis points to mortgage rates settling substantially lower, around the 1.35% to 1.4% range in the scenario discussed.
For Singapore property buyers, that difference is not cosmetic.
It changes purchasing power.
It changes affordability.
It changes cash flow.
And it changes the psychology of whether buyers are prepared to commit.
This helps explain why looking only at June’s 156 units can produce such a misleading conclusion.
The Market Is Not Necessarily Waiting for You to Buy Cheaper
Here is where the analysis becomes uncomfortable.
Many buyers see weak monthly sales figures and make the following assumption:
“I’ll wait for the next batch of new launches. Developers will eventually have to sell cheaper.”
This sounds rational.
But it ignores how Singapore new launches are actually priced.
Developers do not wake up one morning and randomly decide what a condominium should cost.
The price is heavily influenced by their underlying cost structure.
And the biggest starting point is land.
The Property Price Is Partly Determined Before the Building Even Exists
Every new development begins with an acquisition cost.
A developer purchases land.
Then comes construction.
Labour.
Materials.
Financing.
Professional fees.
Marketing.
Taxes.
And finally, the required profit margin.
The source material explains this using the concept of price per square foot per plot ratio, or PSF PPR.
In simple terms, this metric helps calculate how much the developer paid for the land relative to the amount of buildable floor area.
That land cost becomes the foundation of the entire pricing structure.
If the land is expensive, the final property cannot magically become cheap without destroying the economics of the project.
This is the critical point.
The future selling price is influenced by decisions developers have already made today.
The land has already been purchased.
The costs have already been locked in.
The financial model has already been built.
Which means a buyer who says, “I’ll wait for next year’s project because it should be cheaper,” may be making an assumption that directly contradicts the mathematics of development.
Higher Land Costs Create a Higher Future Price Floor
The source material provides several examples of recent land transactions and estimated development costs.
One example discussed a GLS site acquired at approximately $1,515 per square foot per plot ratio, with the analysis estimating a break-even cost of around $2,700 per square foot after development and ancillary costs. Adding a typical developer margin could push the eventual launch price towards $3,300 per square foot or higher.
Another example involved River Valley Green Parcel C, where the land tender was cited at approximately $1,730 per square foot per plot ratio and the estimated break-even price approached $2,991 per square foot even before profit.
The analysis also points to the same pressure appearing outside the central region.
In other words, this is not just a luxury-market issue.
Higher land costs can eventually flow through the entire market.
This leads to a simple first-principles question.
If the raw material cost of a product increases significantly, why would you expect the final product to become cheaper?
Developers may adjust margins.
They may phase their launches.
They may alter unit sizes.
They may change product positioning.
But they cannot permanently ignore the economics.
Land cost creates a floor.
And once that floor rises, future buyers may find themselves paying more simply because they waited for a newer project.
The Hidden Danger of the “I’ll Wait” Strategy
Most property buyers are very aware of one risk.
Buying at the peak.
That fear dominates almost every property conversation.
“What if prices fall after I buy?”
“What if I buy the wrong project?”
“What if the next launch is cheaper?”
These are legitimate questions.
But there is another risk that receives far less attention.
The risk of being priced out while waiting for the perfect entry point.
The source describes this behaviour as a subconscious delay strategy. Buyers convince themselves that they are being disciplined by waiting, when they may actually be avoiding the difficult decision of committing to a major purchase.
Again, waiting is not automatically wrong.
But you must know what you are waiting for.
Are you waiting because the property does not meet your financial requirements?
Good.
Are you waiting because your household cash flow is insufficient?
Good.
Are you waiting because the unit, location or investment thesis does not make sense?
Excellent.
But if you are waiting simply because you expect future properties to become structurally cheaper while land and construction costs continue rising, you may be waiting for something that the mathematics does not support.
The Airline Ticket Problem
The source uses an excellent analogy.
Imagine waiting to buy an airline ticket.
You know you need to travel.
You know the date.
But you decide to wait until the final days before departure because you assume the airline will give you a better price.
Sometimes that happens.
But generally, as the departure date approaches and available inventory declines, the underlying economics become less favourable.
Property can work in a similar way.
You may believe that you are waiting for a market correction.
But if future development costs are rising, you may actually be waiting for the baseline cost of future housing to increase.
This does not mean buyers should rush.
That would be equally dangerous.
It means you should stop treating time as neutral.
Time itself changes your purchasing environment.
Your age changes.
Your loan tenure changes.
Your income changes.
Interest rates change.
Land costs change.
Construction costs change.
And available inventory changes.
Doing nothing is still a decision.
And every decision has a cost.
So What Should Buyers Do?
If you accept that future supply may be built on higher-cost land, the next question becomes obvious.
Where should a buyer look today?
The source material outlines two immediate tactical approaches.
The first is particularly interesting.
Strategy 1. Look at Balance Units
A balance unit is not automatically a bad unit.
That is a myth.
Yes, some units remain unsold because of their location, orientation, layout or price.
But others remain simply because they were part of a larger development with substantial inventory.
The source suggests looking at balance units in projects where the developer acquired the land one, two or even three years earlier.
Why?
Because the embedded cost structure may be based on an earlier land acquisition.
You are effectively looking at a property whose cost base was established before the latest escalation in land and construction costs.
That does not automatically mean every balance unit is a bargain.
Far from it.
You still need to analyse:
- The entry quantum.
- The PSF.
- The unit layout.
- The floor.
- The orientation.
- The future resale buyer profile.
- Nearby competing supply.
- The remaining lease.
- The transformation story of the location.
- The project’s eventual exit strategy.
But the first-principles argument is worth considering.
A property built on yesterday’s land cost may offer a different cost structure from a property launching tomorrow.
Strategy 2. Prepare Before the Preview Weekend
The second tactic is even more practical.
Prepare your finances before the project launches.
Not after.
The source argues that developers often have an incentive to create strong sales momentum during the initial launch period.
A successful opening weekend creates confidence.
It creates headlines.
It creates social proof.
And it can influence the perception of the entire project.
That means the earliest release may sometimes contain attractive opportunities.
But if you wait until the project has already opened before speaking to a banker and understanding your loan capacity, you may already be behind.
By the time your financing is organised, the attractive pricing tier may have moved.
The better strategy is simple.
Do your homework before the crowd arrives.
Know your affordability.
Know your Total Debt Servicing Ratio.
Know your cash requirement.
Know your CPF position.
Know your loan quantum.
Know your preferred exit strategy.
Then evaluate the launch rationally.
Do not walk into a showroom hoping to figure out your finances after falling in love with a unit.
That is how emotion defeats mathematics.
The Three Principles That Matter More Than Timing
However, no entry strategy matters if your financial foundation is weak.
The source identifies three long-term principles that are arguably more important than trying to predict the next market movement.
Principle 1. Save and Invest Early
This sounds like generic financial advice.
It isn’t.
In Singapore property, timing your financial preparation can directly influence your purchasing power.
Mortgage tenure is linked to age and the structure of the borrower’s financial profile.
As buyers become older, their available loan tenure can become more constrained.
A shorter loan period means the same loan amount may need to be repaid over fewer years.
That increases the monthly repayment.
And a higher monthly repayment places more pressure on TDSR limits.
This creates a simple but often overlooked reality.
Waiting can reduce your leverage capacity.
You may earn more later in life.
But you may also have less time available to structure your mortgage.
That is why building financial capacity early matters.
Property prices are only one side of purchasing power.
Your ability to finance the property is the other.
Principle 2. Upgrade Your Asset Net Worth Progressively
Many people think property wealth requires one enormous leap.
Sell everything.
Stretch your finances.
Buy the biggest possible asset.
Hope it works.
I disagree with that approach.
The source makes a strong case for progressive upgrading.
Moving from one asset class to the next allows households to gradually adapt to higher financial responsibilities.
For example, a household may begin with an HDB property.
Then progress into a larger or higher-value asset.
Then eventually move into private property when the financial foundation supports it.
The exact pathway is different for every family.
But the principle is logical.
Financial resilience is developed progressively.
Jumping from a comfortable mortgage to an overwhelming one does not make you financially sophisticated.
It makes you vulnerable.
Principle 3. Maintain an 18 to 24-Month Reserve Buffer
This may be the most important principle in the entire analysis.
The source recommends maintaining an 18 to 24-month reserve buffer or retaining at least 20% of usable working capital in reserve.
Why does this matter?
Because property is illiquid.
You cannot sell half a condominium when you lose your job.
You cannot quickly convert one bedroom into emergency cash.
When circumstances change, property owners without reserves can become forced sellers.
And forced selling is one of the greatest destroyers of property wealth.
A healthy cash reserve gives you something far more valuable than investment returns.
Time.
Time to change careers.
Time to survive an economic downturn.
Time to deal with family circumstances.
Time to ride through a period of higher interest rates.
Time to wait for the right buyer rather than accepting the first offer.
Property is fundamentally a long-term asset.
But it only works as a long-term asset if you have enough financial strength to hold it.
The Market Does Not Reward Fear or Confidence. It Rewards Correct Mathematics
This brings us back to June’s two-year-low sales headline.
The headline is real.
The sales figure is real.
But the interpretation matters.
The source material suggests that the decline occurred during a month in which there were zero new private residential launches, while the broader first-half data showed substantial absorption of new homes.
At the same time:
Interest rates have become a more supportive factor than during the previous peak-rate environment.
Developers are operating with relatively lean unsold inventory, reducing the structural pressure for widespread fire sales.
And land costs from recent acquisitions are creating a higher baseline for future development pricing.
Does this mean every property is a good buy today?
Absolutely not.
That would be a ridiculous conclusion.
Some projects will be overpriced.
Some locations will face significant future competition.
Some buyers will overextend.
Some households should wait.
And some investors will still make poor decisions.
A strong market thesis does not rescue a bad property purchase.
You still need to analyse the specific asset.
The specific unit.
The specific entry price.
The specific buyer profile.
The specific financial situation.
Because you do not buy the Singapore property market.
You buy one property.
And eventually, you need someone else to buy that property from you.
The Real Question Is Not “Should I Buy Now?”
I believe this is the wrong question.
The better question is:
“What is the most intelligent property decision for my financial position over the next five to ten years?”
For some people, that answer is to buy.
For others, it is to hold.
For some, it is to upgrade.
For others, it is to right-size.
For some investors, the opportunity may be a balance unit built on an earlier cost base.
For others, it may be preparing early for an upcoming new launch.
And for some people, the smartest decision is not to buy anything until their financial foundation is stronger.
This is why copying another person’s property strategy is dangerous.
Two people can buy the same property.
One may build wealth.
The other may become financially trapped.
The property is the same.
The financial structure is different.
The holding power is different.
The objectives are different.
The exit strategy is different.
My Final Thought. The Greatest Risk May Not Be Buying Too Early
Singaporeans spend enormous amounts of time worrying about buying at the peak.
That fear is understandable.
Nobody wants to pay too much.
Nobody wants to see the market soften immediately after purchasing.
But we need to be intellectually honest.
There is another risk.
The risk of waiting indefinitely for a crash that never arrives at the level you expected.
If land costs continue establishing higher future price floors, if construction costs remain elevated, and if developers have no significant inventory pressure forcing widespread discounts, the buyer who waits simply because they expect future new launches to be cheaper may eventually discover something painful.
They were not waiting for a better opportunity.
They were waiting while their future entry price increased.
That does not mean rush.
It means calculate.
Do not buy because you are afraid of missing out.
But do not wait simply because you are afraid of making a decision.
Fear and FOMO are two sides of the same problem.
Both replace analysis with emotion.
The intelligent buyer does something different.
They understand their numbers.
They understand their holding power.
They understand their risk.
And they make decisions based on the structural mathematics of the market rather than one frightening headline.
Because sometimes the biggest mistake is buying the wrong property.
But sometimes, the mistake nobody sees until years later is waiting for the perfect moment while the market quietly moves further away from you.
Ready to Build Your 5 to 10-Year Singapore Property Roadmap?
The Singapore property market is too complex to make a multi-million-dollar decision based on headlines, WhatsApp messages or what someone else is doing.
Your strategy should consider:
✓ Your current property position ✓ Your household income and TDSR ✓ Your available cash and CPF ✓ Your age and remaining loan tenure ✓ Your family objectives ✓ Your risk appetite ✓ Your holding power ✓ Your preferred property exit strategy ✓ Whether you should hold, sell, upgrade or right-size
If you are considering your next property move, let’s have an alignment conversation and map out the numbers before you make the decision.
The market headline is public.
Your personal strategy cannot be.
Message me on WhatsApp: “Hi M, I’d like my property strategy review.”
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